Valuation

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation

XOM · NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Implied value per share

$195.87

Derived from the last four years of reported financials using the Consensus preset. Filings change quarterly, so this figure is dated; the market comparison alongside it updates with the current price.

Market price · 2026-09-01$160.95

Difference+21.7%

ModelDCF

Assumptionsconsensus

Model dated2026-09-01

Model against market

The past year of closing prices, with the implied value from this model drawn across it. The model line is flat because it is rebuilt from filings, not quoted.

Solid line: closing price. Dashed: implied value from this model, held at its published figure.

What the model is built on

Revenue and operating margin as reported. The growth rate and margin used in the projection come from these figures, not from an estimate.

Method

Intrinsic value derived from a 6-year Discounted Cash Flow model with mid-year convention. Projections driven by your assumption inputs; terminal value via Gordon Growth. Comps cross-check shown separately. For high-multiple growth stocks, a DCF typically prices in only fundamentals — market prices may reflect optionality (new products, markets, regulatory) that a DCF framework can't capture.

Assumptions come from the Consensus preset — peer-median operating margin, analyst-implied growth, and a 5.0% equity risk premium. The workbook contains every step, with formulas left live so the numbers can be traced or changed.

Figures

WACC

7.1%

Terminal value

76.1%

Enterprise value ($mm)

$837,185

Equity value ($mm)

$805,405

Net debt ($mm)

$31,780

Shares (mm)

$4,112

EV / EBITDA

19.9

EV / Revenue

9.27

If the assumptions are wrong

The figure above is one answer from one set of inputs. Here the four drivers — growth, margin, discount rate and terminal growth — are varied together across ten thousand scenarios, correlated rather than independent, since a company growing faster tends to carry a higher discount rate and settle at a higher steady state. The result is a range, not a point.

$200.53median of 10,000 scenarios

$109.05

P25

$157.42

P50

$200.53

P75

$254.55

P95

$372.12

Above market

73.1%

10,000 draws · seed 2140072998 · growth, margin, discount rate and terminal growth drawn together rather than independently · 0 discarded where terminal growth approached the discount rate

Sensitivity

Implied share price across discount rate and terminal growth. The base case sits in the centre.

WACC ╲ Terminal growth	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.1%	262.92	204.57	167.05	140.91	121.67
6.1%	299.31	225.17	180.05	149.72	127.95
7.1%	349.58	251.45	195.87	160.11	135.19
8.1%	423.55	286.16	215.52	172.52	143.61
9.1%	543.15	334.11	240.60	187.62	153.53

Peer set

Used as a cross-check on the model output, not as an input to it.

Company	Revenue ($bn)	EBIT margin	EV / EBITDA	P/E	Rev growth 3Y
MSFT Microsoft Corporation	331.8	58.5%	19.9	21.5	16.1%
GOOGL Alphabet Inc.	445.9	38.8%	23.9	22.9	12.5%
META Meta Platforms, Inc.	228.2	48.0%	13.6	16.4	19.9%
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc.	775.7	21.8%	17.8	25.0	11.7%
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation	303.0	66.4%	26.3	14.3	100.0%

This is one model with one set of assumptions, not a price target or a recommendation. Change the growth rate or the discount rate and the answer moves — which is the point. Run XOM with your own inputs or read the disclaimer.